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Username Post: Inflation        (Topic#538986)
Johnny_Upton
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02-26-13 11:05 AM - Post#1514968    



I was listening to NPR and they were talking about how the Fed has whipped inflation, and was like WTF?

I guess these guys crowing about zero inflation haven’t bought food, gas, gone out to eat, bought lumber, etc. Jesus, I went grocery shopping last week and the price were nuts and the sizes were smaller, gas is back around $3.85/gal, etc.

Anyone actually believe this shit circus any more?
It was down in Louisiana,
Just about a mile from Texarkana,
In them old cotton fields back home.


 
FreezingTexan
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02-26-13 11:12 AM - Post#1514969    


    In response to Johnny_Upton

Maybe they meant not inflating a bag of balloons they just bought
Germany, it's like Wisconsin only with a really bad past.


 
Pete
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02-26-13 12:11 PM - Post#1514983    


    In response to FreezingTexan

The gubmint simply changes the elements that comprises the CPI and doesn't perform any restatements. Similar to Obama's "jobs saved" metric.
 
CdnBruinsFan
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02-26-13 12:38 PM - Post#1514993    


    In response to Johnny_Upton

  • Johnny_Upton Said:
I was listening to NPR and they were talking about how the Fed has whipped inflation, and was like WTF?

I guess these guys crowing about zero inflation haven’t bought food, gas, gone out to eat, bought lumber, etc. Jesus, I went grocery shopping last week and the price were nuts and the sizes were smaller, gas is back around $3.85/gal, etc.

Anyone actually believe this shit circus any more?





The same lines are being spewed up here by our government, the Bank of Canada and certain media. I am not one that generally belives in conspiracy theories, but when actual real world fact completely blows a part these talking points, it makes wonder what is really going on behind the scenes
 
Renard
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02-26-13 12:47 PM - Post#1514996    


    In response to CdnBruinsFan

Anyone who thinks that inflation is not a problem (and one that is growing each year) here in the States is beyond hope....or perhaps living in a cave and subsisting on grubs.
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John_P
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02-26-13 02:35 PM - Post#1515020    


    In response to Renard

Inflation has averaged 1.6% over the last 4 years and was 2.1% last year, but 1.6% again in January. Inflation is not a problem and they've been calculating it the same way for quite a many years although they adjust the "basket of goods" every 5 years or so to better reflect what people spend their money on. There are good reasons to keep some of the more volatile priced items out of the index too.

Of course, that's the reality based assessment, there are always "alternatives" to reality. Specifically, loons like John Williams who maintain their b'basket of goods" ratios at 1980 levels which make them useless in assessing the situation today.

The Austrians have been predicting runaway inflation for the better part of a decade now, so much so, that when it hasn't arrived, they've invented new ways of measuring it. The fact is deflation is more of a fear under today's current economic conditions than inflation, that's what the "evil" Fed's monetary policy has among other things been trying to head off.

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Pete
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02-26-13 03:15 PM - Post#1515030    


    In response to John_P

  • John_P Said:
Inflation has averaged 1.6% over the last 4 years and was 2.1% last year, but 1.6% again in January. Inflation is not a problem and they've been calculating it the same way for quite a many years although they adjust the "basket of goods" every 5 years or so to better reflect what people spend their money on. There are good reasons to keep some of the more volatile priced items out of the index too.

Of course, that's the reality based assessment, there are always "alternatives" to reality. Specifically, loons like John Williams who maintain their b'basket of goods" ratios at 1980 levels which make them useless in assessing the situation today.

The Austrians have been predicting runaway inflation for the better part of a decade now, so much so, that when it hasn't arrived, they've invented new ways of measuring it. The fact is deflation is more of a fear under today's current economic conditions than inflation, that's what the "evil" Fed's monetary policy has among other things been trying to head off.





Your statement re: "adjusting the basket of goods" is what I was referring to in the CPI manipulation. Let's see if any healthcare items are included.

Edited by Pete on 02-26-13 03:36 PM. Reason for edit: No reason given.
 
Tim-
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02-26-13 04:42 PM - Post#1515049    


    In response to Pete

What's the rate of growth of the average income in this country?
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NYR_Nutz
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02-26-13 04:44 PM - Post#1515050    


    In response to Tim-

  • Tim- Said:
What's the rate of growth of the average income in this country?



How much has welfare gone up and there's your answer


 
Tim-
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02-26-13 04:50 PM - Post#1515054    


    In response to NYR_Nutz

That's not an answer to my question.

I think our average income slipped slightly in the past few years from around $48k to $47k. But I don't remember exactly.
"It is not our fault that the world is bad, and we do not want to die changing it. We want to live- that is all."

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Pete
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02-26-13 05:41 PM - Post#1515082    


    In response to Tim-

U.S. M2 Money Supply more than doubled from January 1990 to April 2008, from $3.2 trillion to $7.7 trillion. More recently, it's peaked at $10.4 trillion. That's legal counterfeiting to me. By definition, the increase dilutes the purchasing power of each dollar. So how has The Fed broken the back of traditional laws of economics?
 
taz
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02-26-13 06:11 PM - Post#1515091    


    In response to Pete

Anyone who thinks inflation isn't going to be a major issue to be dealt with in the near future is insane.
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NYR_Nutz
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02-26-13 06:14 PM - Post#1515094    


    In response to Tim-

  • Tim- Said:
That's not an answer to my question.

I think our average income slipped slightly in the past few years from around $48k to $47k. But I don't remember exactly.



It was a lame attempt at me being a smart ass saying the average family is now on welfare


 
Tim-
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02-26-13 06:47 PM - Post#1515115    


    In response to NYR_Nutz

  • NYR_Nutz Said:
  • Tim- Said:
That's not an answer to my question.

I think our average income slipped slightly in the past few years from around $48k to $47k. But I don't remember exactly.



It was a lame attempt at me being a smart ass saying the average family is now on welfare



Oh, sorry. Sarcasm is hard to understand online sometimes.
"It is not our fault that the world is bad, and we do not want to die changing it. We want to live- that is all."

-Tadeusz Borowski


 
Johnny_Upton
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02-26-13 08:42 PM - Post#1515147    


    In response to Tim-

  • Tim- Said:
That's not an answer to my question.

I think our average income slipped slightly in the past few years from around $48k to $47k. But I don't remember exactly.



Depends on how you define income
It was down in Louisiana,
Just about a mile from Texarkana,
In them old cotton fields back home.


 
mtnbiker
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02-26-13 09:55 PM - Post#1515172    


    In response to Johnny_Upton

If you look at food and energy (the two items that are excluded from core CPI) inflation is already here. We all feel it when we shop, go to the gas pump, and look at our utility bills. To magnify the problem, rates have been low on traditional investments like CD and bonds making the income for retired people low while the above mentioned food and energy costs have gone up (in some cases 2-3 times over the last few years). The net results is massive erosion in what people have left over at the end of every month.

Social Security (a huge portion of the annual, national expenses) is not something the government wants to keep raising every year and when they do raise it they want to raise it as little as possible. So what does the government do? They'll typically fashion the lowest CPI possible.

LIBOR securities have been on a tear over the last couple of years and if you look at LIBOR closed end funds they have performed extremely well. The bigger problem is going to be bond rates (specifically investment grade corp and US gov't bonds). As the appetite for them wanes and prices fall, the rates on these securities will by definition rise and could create a big problem for sectors like housing and for the institution/business that borrows money. The cost to borrow is still amazingly low, which has contributed to some of the best housing affordability conditions in a generation.

Inflation is already here. The question is: what will drive it moving forward? The investment "themes" for the institutional investors right now are basic materials, energy, consumer discretionary, BRIC stocks, and IPS (inflation protected securities). All of these are biased toward inflation.



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Spanky3
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03-02-13 11:52 AM - Post#1516390    


    In response to John_P

CORRECTION: The govt wants us to believe inflation has averaged 1.6% over the past 4 years. Lets not be so naive to believe everything we are told.

Maybe they should keep volitile goods or services out of the official numbers BUT they must make an adjustment somehow, someway so the number can at least me somewhat relevant. Dont piss on my leg and tell me its raining, AMIRIGHT?????
 
Mike
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03-02-13 12:39 PM - Post#1516410    


    In response to mtnbiker

  • mtnbiker Said:
If you look at food and energy (the two items that are excluded from core CPI) inflation is already here. We all feel it when we shop, go to the gas pump, and look at our utility bills. To magnify the problem, rates have been low on traditional investments like CD and bonds making the income for retired people low while the above mentioned food and energy costs have gone up (in some cases 2-3 times over the last few years). The net results is massive erosion in what people have left over at the end of every month.

Social Security (a huge portion of the annual, national expenses) is not something the government wants to keep raising every year and when they do raise it they want to raise it as little as possible. So what does the government do? They'll typically fashion the lowest CPI possible.

LIBOR securities have been on a tear over the last couple of years and if you look at LIBOR closed end funds they have performed extremely well. The bigger problem is going to be bond rates (specifically investment grade corp and US gov't bonds). As the appetite for them wanes and prices fall, the rates on these securities will by definition rise and could create a big problem for sectors like housing and for the institution/business that borrows money. The cost to borrow is still amazingly low, which has contributed to some of the best housing affordability conditions in a generation.

Inflation is already here. The question is: what will drive it moving forward? The investment "themes" for the institutional investors right now are basic materials, energy, consumer discretionary, BRIC stocks, and IPS (inflation protected securities). All of these are biased toward inflation.







nice post dude!


 
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